Douglas Adams knew what he was talking about when he told everybody not to panic and that the Earth was mostly harmless. I've received numerous emails and facebook messages from people warning me to be careful and asking if I'm planning to come home... Um, no. And frankly, I don't think this is going to escalate into much of anything.
For starters, I live in Daegu, which you might notice is rather a long ass way from Yeonpyeong-do, where the shelling took place, as well as from the border with the north. Unless all hell breaks loose and North Korea decides to nuke the south's four largest cities, I'm pretty safe.
Secondly, all hell ain't gonna break loose. Kim Jong-eun, Kim Jong-il's young and inexperienced heir is up there throwing some weight around and generating some propoganda footage he can use to bolster his image.
Thirdly, if the South goes holding war games in disputed waters (click here to see a graphic showing where North Korea thinks the maritime border lies, as opposed to where the South thinks it's located), they shouldn't be all that surprised when the North uses this as an excuse to fire southward.
The following comes from a statement issued from North Korea's military supreme command: The South Korean enemy, despite our repeated warnings, committed reckless military provocations of firing artillery shells into our maritime territory near Yeonpyeong island beginning 1pm [yesterday]. Taken from here. Kinda proves my third point, huh?
Lastly, I don't know enough about North Korea to tell you if they really want a war of not. What I can tell you is that the South definitely does NOT want war, the government's post-Cheonan rhetoric notwithstanding.
My prediction? The South will talk tough. They'll cut off humanitarian aid to the North. They'll threaten. And they'll take no military action. The North will use this as a propoganda goldmine to show how Kim Jong-eun battled the evil capitalist forces of the South. And here in the South, life will go on, unchanged. (And well, if I'm wrong about all this, at least it will give me blog fodder until the internet stops working.)
Lastly, I don't know enough about North Korea to tell you if they really want a war of not. What I can tell you is that the South definitely does NOT want war, the government's post-Cheonan rhetoric notwithstanding.
My prediction? The South will talk tough. They'll cut off humanitarian aid to the North. They'll threaten. And they'll take no military action. The North will use this as a propoganda goldmine to show how Kim Jong-eun battled the evil capitalist forces of the South. And here in the South, life will go on, unchanged. (And well, if I'm wrong about all this, at least it will give me blog fodder until the internet stops working.)
8 comments:
Have a nice Thanksgiving Jane and keep a level head as always.
-steve
Thanksgiving? Hah. Going to work as usual. Hope this nonsense doesn't muck up your vacation!
I take your points, but I'm not sure I totally agree that the military drills are a mistake.
I think not holding military exercises in disputed territories would lead a regime like NK to just take the area over.
These exercises are not anything new. From my understanding, the sort of exercise held yesterday is a monthly drill. Sure, the North protests every time. But I think they are being willfully obtuse to claim that a routine drill is an act of war. I can't imagine the people in charge feel threatened as they have to know that the last thing the South wants is to fight.
I'm with you though on this probably being an internal demonstration of power. It's also likely North Korea's twisted way of getting more aid... since being violent usually gets them what they want @_@
Also- holy crap! Have you seen this video?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZcsXT6fL9lE
From what I've seen/read in various reports, the South Korean public might actually be kind of on the verge of getting fed up with this crap. Images of elderly South Korean civilians running away from North Korean artillery explosions could very well be the proverbial straw that.... strains the camel's back.
I don't foresee anything rash happening, but the difference in attitude toward the Cheonan attack and now this compared with the skirmish back in 2002 is definitely noticeable.
Gwen - I didn't say that the drills were a mistake, just that the South shouldn't be surprised when the North uses them as an excuse.
I agree, the reactions to this in the Korean public (and, to some extent, the government) are harsher than with past skirmishes (most likely because this targeted civilians as opposed to military)... but I still don't see anything along the lines of war coming as a result.
The North says that cutting off aid or the South patrolling its own border are acts of war too though. Of course the drills are the most obvious excuse, but it would be something else even if they were taken out of the equation.
Ack- baby crisis before I could finish my thought :)
Nonetheless, I don't think anyone is surprised at the drill excuse, but people are questioning the legitimacy of the reasoning.
Hello Jane! I hope you are right in your analysis of the short-term. In the long-term I think the more pessimistic analysis of B.R. Myers may be correct and I am wondering what you think of his writing. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/25/opinion/25myers.html and also http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/292562-1
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